Jared Bickenbach, market analyst for IHS Research, has explored what this could mean for the United States’ explosives, weapons and contraband detection equipment service and maintenance market.

In the latest edition of the IHS report entitled the Market for Explosives, Weapons and Contraband Detection Equipment, IHS forecast the global service and maintenance market to grow by a CAGR of more than 6%. As a result of information presented in the Inspector General report, IHS presents two alternative scenarios for growth in the service and maintenance market.

First, the government findings could result in higher scrutiny of the TSA preventive maintenance programme. If this scenario comes to fruition, IHS expects service and maintenance revenues to increase by several percentage points. In the short-term, IHS expects to see an increase in service and maintenance as a result of corrective maintenance performed on the existing installed base of explosives detection equipment. Consequently, IHS expects this to drive a small number of checkpoint equipment sales for equipment that is beyond repair or nearing the end of its useful life cycle. This finding is expected to result in the replacement of between 450 and 500 units each year, over the next three years.

The second scenario is less advantageous to service and maintenance providers. There is a remote possibility that the status quo remains in place which would result in fewer service and maintenance revenues over the forecast period. Based on current threats to the aviation industry, IHS finds this scenario to be very unlikely as security at US airports is expected to remain high.

While the Inspector General report is alarming, IHS expects the findings to drive positive change within the TSA and result in systematic changes in how preventive service and maintenance is performed. While the ultimate outcome of the government’s report is still uncertain, IHS expects the findings to result in increased service and maintenance revenues and a small number of product sales over the next three years.