Trade tensions ahead for global video surveillance markets

Stockholm, Sweden

Total global revenues for video surveillance equipment and software at factory gate prices, reached an estimated $30.4 billion in 2022. This represents healthy 4.5% growth over 2021, albeit lower than the 11.7% rebound in 2021 following pandemic impacts.  However, geopolitical tensions between China and the West have stirred up the video surveillance market of late, especially impacting leading Chinese vendors. 

For the 6-year period between 2022-2028, the video surveillance market is projected to expand at a 5.7% CAGR, reaching $44.8 billion by 2028.

Several interlinked factors are fueling strong demand growth globally for video surveillance solutions. Expanding criminal and terrorist threats have compelled both public and private entities to ramp up security monitoring.

However, the video surveillance industry has faced significant supply chain disruptions, product shortages, and cost inflation during the pandemic recovery. Surging demand has outstripped manufacturers’ production capacity, especially for key components like semiconductors.

Add to all this the geopolitical tensions between China and the West, which have also stirred up the video surveillance market, especially impacting leading Chinese vendors such as Hikvision and Dahua. US bans prohibit government agencies from purchasing their equipment, while export controls limit access to American technology and participation in US capital markets. According to Memoori, the US and its allies cite concerns around data security, human rights controversies, and intellectual property practices.

Within the new report, Memoori lays out a summarised timeline of how the disruption has progressed to analyse what has happened so far and the impact that it could have on the industry. The growing concerns of the US government resulted in official actions that began in 2018, when in August the US NDAA banned, and continues to ban, US agencies from procuring Hikvision and Dahua video surveillance equipment.  Then in May 2019, Huawei was added to the Entity List restricting US tech exports, and later the same year Hikvision and Dahua were added to that same list due to concerns over human rights.  The Entity List is cited by Memoori as a tool used by the US government to restrict certain foreign entities from engaging in US export transactions.  

From this time onwards and up to present day, Memoori's timeline shows that the US government has accelerated efforts to replace existing Chinese made surveillance equipment, added Chinese companies to various so called "black lists", and taken actions to restrict the export of semi-conductors and advanced AI chips to China.  

In this latest new report, Memoori looks at how these trade tensions are restructuring the global technology supply networks and how this could potentially result in the evolution of divided and bifurcated markets.


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