Prosegur Research's analysis highlights five structural trends behind the emerging international challenges and risks marked by extreme competition, the fragmentation of power and the normalisation of conflict.

1. A multipolar world

The international system is moving towards an unstable multipolarity, with great powers and more autonomous regional actors operating in fast-changing environments. This process is accompanied by the erosion of democracy that Prosegur Research describes as "rampant autocracy", along with a sustained increase in active conflicts on a level unseen since WW2.

2. Geoeconomics

The economy and trade are increasing their importance as instruments of power. With overall moderate growth and collective debt of more than 230% of world GDP, trade, tariffs, access to resources, technological restrictions and strategic regulation are reconfiguring value chains.

3. Individual and collective empowerment

Demographic transformations, urbanisation and growing territorial and generational disparity contribute to greater social polarization, affecting trust in institutions and generating new challenges in the management of social cohesion.

4. Technological convergence

Technology is consolidating itself as an area of strategic relevance, where data control, semiconductors and AI generate power asymmetries between global players. The growing interconnection between the physical and digital environments expands the risk surface.

5. Environment

Fires, floods or droughts are no longer exceptional episodes but recurring patterns that affect infrastructure, logistics and people, placing resilience and adaptability as central elements of business continuity.

Security impact and roadmap for business resilience

Prosegur Research’s report defines 2026 as the year of "the security of the critical", characterised by hybrid threats where essential infrastructures are strategic assets. In this context, the convergence between security and defense reinforces the value of capabilities such as anticipation, intelligence and operational resilience.

In the business environment, the growing interdependence between physical and digital exposes organisations to structural risks, requiring a comprehensive view of security, leaving behind fragmented or siloed approaches.

Summing up the challenges facing governments and businesses in 2026, José María Blanco, Director of Prosegur Research, said: "The evolution of global risk is forcing a profound redefinition of the concept of security, which must transition from being reactive and sectoral to strategic and integrated".