The report suggests that the access control market has rebounded strongly after the pandemic with over 10% growth in both 2021 and 2022, reaching an estimated $13.3 billion in 2022.

Mobile solutions for access control present a big opportunity to deliver a wide range of user-friendly applications and drive market growth. The backbone of mobile access control is undoubtedly mobile credentials, which have increasingly been shaping the landscape of access control technologies, offering a blend of convenience, security, and remote manageability that is winning over the younger generations of building occupants.

Mobile credentials

Primarily using Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) and Near-Field Communication (NFC) as communication protocols, mobile credentials are virtual keys stored on smartphones. First and foremost, they offer the advantage of leveraging essential personal devices that users are less likely to lose or forget, thus enhancing user convenience. Administrators also benefit from being able to remotely issue, revoke, or replace these credentials, thanks to their cloud-based architecture. That software architecture relies on specialized applications acting as digital keys by interfacing with compatible card readers to control access to authorised entry points.

Steadying growth rate

The access control market contracted in 2020 due to the global pandemic, dropping to $10.85 billion. However, it rebounded strongly with over 10% growth in both 2021 and 2022, reaching an estimated $13.3 billion in 2022. Growth is projected to continue through 2028 but at more moderate annual rates between 5-7%.

A major driver of access control adoption is ongoing technology advancements enabling more convenient and integrated solutions. Key examples include the rise of mobile access control, biometrics, IoT integration, and frictionless/touchless access control. Regulations related to building security and data protection are also catalysing investments and system upgrades.

Mergers and acquisitions

In the last 12 months, the sector has seen over $731M in M&A across notable deals like SGT Capital acquiring Elatec RFID Systems for $422M and Assa Abloy acquiring Evolis for $237M. The activity signals a focus on integration, cloud-based solutions, and advanced software capabilities.

In addition, divestments by Carrier and Bosch could significantly reshape the competitive landscape depending on how their security businesses are divested. This aligns with a trend of conglomerates streamlining to focus more on core business offerings.

Memoori evaluated the details on a total of 294 companies over the course of this year’s analysis of the access control market. Companies were evaluated according to their estimated revenues falling into the scope of the report, with companies grouped and classified by size using clearly defined definitions, based on 2022 revenue estimates.

Evolving through convergence

Access control is evolving through convergence with progressive technologies. While obstacles exist, the benefits appear compelling, pointing toward gradual but increasing adoption across enterprises. The future landscape will likely involve a hybrid model blending physical and digital systems. Those able to provide holistic solutions with strong open platform support and flexible integration will be best positioned to capitalize on these industry shifts.