IHS Technology, analysts have recently issued revised forecasts for the EMEA access control market which have uncovered both new opportunities and challenges for market players. In the latest IHS country-level analysis for Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), countries where the market for access control equipment is mature (i.e., France, United Kingdom and Germany) experienced only minor volatility in 2015. The combined compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast for 2014 through 2019 in Germany, Russia, United Kingdom and France shifted only slightly from 5.3% to 5.4%. The biggest changes in the forecast, however, came from France and Russia.

According to Blake Kozak, Principal Analyst - Security & Building Technologies, IHS Technology, the French market will continue to be a target market for international suppliers through 2019, especially for electronic locks. The French market is also relatively untapped, compared to the U.K. and Germany. Due in large part to the recent terrorist attacks in France, and now in Belgium securing access to public places and accenting citizen safety in that country has become a priority. Development of governmental systems for access control is likely to receive backing from both the public and the parliament; however, any growth in the government sector will take time to develop, so short-term growth is not expected for government applications.

The Russian market for access control equipment continues to challenge international suppliers, primarily because of exchange-rate volatility: in fact, the market contracted by 5.3% in 2015 and will shrink by another 1.9% in 2016. Future opportunities for growth in Russia will hinge mostly on the state of national economic conditions. If oil prices continue to fall, the exchange rate worsens, and competition from local and Chinese vendors rises, the Russian market will remain unfavourable for international suppliers.